November 4th, 2009
Natural Selection
Road and mountain bikes have travelled a long and winding road over the past 20 years. One may or may not be happy with where they’ve ended up, but it’s hard to dispute the fact that they’ve gone through a dramatic evolution. Natural selection, driven by market forces and the large number of people riding these bikes, has created a homogeneous collection of mostly svelte, carbon fiber racers and fully suspended, monocoque mountain bikes, both of which are far removed from their ancestral beginnings.
Bikes designed to be used specifically as car replacements (we’ll call them “transpo” bikes), have yet to go through this vetting process in the U.S. The data’s not perfectly clear on this, but some studies suggest that at least a small majority of transportational bicyclists in the U.S. ride bicycles not by choice, but because they’ve lost their driver’s license or they can’t afford a car. These bicyclists are more than likely riding whatever bike is available and it’s unlikely they’ve provided significant feedback to the market through bicycle purchases.
We’re just now at the threshold of what I believe is an impending explosion in the number of transportational bicyclists in the U.S. A look at the new models for 2010 indicates that the manufacturers have woken up to this emerging market in a big way. The wide variety of designs being marketed for transportation bodes well for us transpo riders. These bikes are all over the map, with design influences coming in from such diverse areas as track, cyclocross, touring, Dutch, trekking, road, mountain, and others. I believe we’ll see these bikes go through a process of natural selection similar to what we’ve seen with road and mountain bikes. It’s an exciting time to be a transportational bicyclist — I can’t wait to see where we end up!
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8 Responses to “Natural Selection”
Hopefully the herd won’t be thinned too much, so as to allow a variety of models for the variety of needs when it comes to basic transportation. Such factors as commute distance, hauling kit, secure parking availability, and ancilliary riding styles will all impact what bike configurations best suit each rider. One size won’t fit all.
Agreed! My guess is that we’ll see a convergence, but not so extreme as what we’ve seen with road racing bikes.
interesting! hopefully there will be a larger number of bicycles that come more fully equipped for city riding as most of the current selection is “hybrids” that don’t come with anything. But I agree w/ doc that we need variety as some people may still prefer the more minimal and lighter bicycles.
An observation: Globe, a branch of Specialized, started being produced in 1994/1995 as commuter/urban bicycles. Originally, there were only 2 models – internal gear 3 speed & internal gear 7 – that came in “diamond” frame and stepthrough. (I have the 7 speed). Both models came with generator lights, rear wheel lock, fenders, chainguard, rack and coaster brake w/front hand brake. These models were produced until ’97, when they started making them more like the hybrids we usually see that don’t come with these useful features. Then the line stopped being produced in 1999. Then somewhere in the 2000s, they started making them again with these features again, but in a wider range of bicycles, most of which had derailleur gears. And their new 2010 line is really being marketed again as “transpo”, city bicycles and they’ve gotten alot of attention, but none of them come with the rear lock or generator lights. So it seems like they’ve come back to where they started out, but with less features. And the “premium” models only come in diamond frame.
Exactly! Different transportation requirements require vastly different bikes. For some, a three speed internal hub is fine. For others (like me) there are so many hills they need as many gears as they can get.
When I upgraded my commuter this year, I only found three bikes that met the requirements of my commute, bike preferences, and budget ($2000). I for one am hoping for less convergence so that every niche will be filled – a bike for everyone, and everyone on a bike.
My “transpo” bike preference: durable, easy to maintain & repair, efficient use of resources, rebuildable components, non-obsolescence prone, functional on most roads & trails, good handling, substantial standardization of components, fully equipped for safe & practical all weather day & night use, recyclable, minimal use of fossil based & toxic chemicals & materials, high quality, comfortable, relatively stress free riding position, not too heavy or too light, esthetically pleasing, reasonably priced… Not too much to ask for;-)
It’s funny that we group all practical bikes into a single group. It’s like classifying animals as “bears,” “gaelles” or “other animals.”
Everything from expected distances to be covered, terrain, climate, existence of bike-specific infrastructure, loads, the weight/durability tradeoff acceptable to the owner, and the desire of the rider to trade effort for speed will influence the design of the bike.
I hope this continues. In the same way that you can get a computer in almost any configuration, from a wearable device with a glasses-mounted display, to a tablet, to a netbook, to a laptop, to an all-in-one desktop, to a set-top box, to a standalone desktop, to a server-style tower, we need bikes to be infinitely customiable to users’ needs if we want people to use them.
That a bike can so completely tailored to my needs is a huge advantage over a car, which is only available in about a half-dozen configurations.
When I was in Copenhagen recently I saw trikes like the Kangaroobike.com that would be perfect for my small family to move around the kid and get groceries, especially for my partner who would like to pedal around but is a bit nervous about being on two wheels and would like the kid closer than a trailer allows. I think they’d be a huge hit here in the US.
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